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  Top Stock Insights: Profit from the Surging Global Demand for Commodities

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By Ian Wyatt
Top Stock Insights, Fall '07
Quintana Maritime Limited (QMAR)

Quintana Maritime Limited
(Nasdaq: QMAR)
Glyfada, Greece
Website: www.quintanamaritime.com

Quintana Maritime Limited is a Greece-based provider of dry bulk cargo marine transportation services to the global market. With an insatiable appetite for large bulk dry commodities such as coal, iron and grains growing from massive emerging economies such as China and India, as well as the Middle East, Africa and Asia, the demand for bulk water transportation is strong and expected to continue.

While the key catalyst is the surging demand for commodities to build infrastructure and satisfy consumer and business demand, the distances required to transport goods to some of the farthest countries translates into higher revenues for the dry bulk shippers. Quintana is a key player benefiting from the global growth.

The company’s shipyards comprise of a relatively new fleet of 22 company-owned vessels along with seven Panamax vessels that are operated under “bareboat charters,” an arrangement in which only the vessel is rented. The total carrying capacity of the 29 vessels is 2,644,043 deadweight tonnage (dwt). Quintana also has plans for expansion and expects to add another eight vessels in which one will be owned while the other seven are owned in part via joint ventures. The carrying capacity will increase to 4,086,043 dwt subsequent to the additions.

Clients are global in nature and include trading houses, public companies, vessel owners and operators, major producers of raw materials and governments.

About two-thirds of goods shipped around the world is done so by sea— it’s also cheaper to transport bulk goods and often the only alternative to ground transport. China continues to be on an extraordinary economic growth path, and its neighbor India, with 1.13 billion people, will probably be the next big growth region.

While the shipping industry is cyclical and driven largely by economic growth, current estimates toward the dry bulk shipping market are bullish. The Baltic Dry Index, a widely used measure of dry bulk shipping rates based on 40 shipping routes, is currently trading at a record high of near 11,000, up a staggering 450% since January 2006. Rates for shipping will be higher in 2008 driven by new iron ore production over the next 12 months, according to analyst Douglas Mavrinac at Jefferies & Co. Investment firm Morgan Stanley is also bullish over the upcoming two years.

Financial Results

Latest Quarter: Q2, 2007

For the second quarter of 2007, Quintana reported net revenues of $59.7 million, up a whopping 203% from $19.7 million in the comparative quarter in 2006.

Adjusted net earnings excluding a non-cash unrealized swap gain of $11.5 million surged 336% to $18.3 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, in the second quarter, from $4.2 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, in the prior year. The strong earnings gain was due to Quintana having 29 ships in service versus 10 for the comparable quarter. Note the second quarter 2007 EPS calculation was based on about 56.6 million outstanding shares, compared to about 24 million in the year ago second quarter, which explains why the EPS increase was not as dramatic.

The balance sheet had cash of $41.5 million and long-term debt of $807.6 million at the end of the second quarter. The debt level is high but not surprising, given the high capital requirements of acquiring vessels for expansion.We are not concerned, as Quintana has good cash flow and is profitable. The company also recently paid down $185 million of debt with funds raised via a sale-leaseback transaction.

Quintana increased its quarterly dividend payment in the second quarter by about 30% to $0.31 per share for a current yield of about 4.60%.

Guidance and Outlook

Quintana is estimated to continue to report strong growth over the next year. For 2007, the consensus analyst estimate calls for Quintana to earn $1.32 per diluted share, up 80.8% year-over-year, on projected revenue growth of 122.3% to $229.7 million. Earnings in 2008 are expected to increase 72% to $2.27 per diluted share. Revenues in 2008 are projected to rise 31.5% year-over-year to $302 million.

Concluding Remarks

The company just announced it would investigate strategic alternatives to increase shareholder value, albeit no details were released. Possibilities include the sale of the company, as Quintana may want to cash out at this high point, or perhaps make a strategic acquisition to expand, but there is no guarantee of either action.

Given the positive outlook toward the dry bulk marine transportation business and the pivotal role Quintana is playing, we feel there is good upside for the growth investor looking for a play on growth in the world economies.


This Article is from the Fall 2007 Top 10 Special Report. Get the latest stock recommendations from other top financial experts today!  Request your FREE copy of the newest report from NewsletterAdvisors.com.  Click here.